Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  17.3  18.4  19.2  25.3  24.0  29.7  29.1  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.0 122.0 124.3 124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  13.0  -4.0 -13.0  25.0  57.0  54.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   1.0   4.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.2%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       20.7%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        9.9%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        9.0%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        9.0%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       18.6%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.0%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%       10.9%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%        4.5%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h       28.7%       11.0%       19.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 AL172023 230929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  17.3  18.4  19.2  25.3  24.0  29.7  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   1.0   4.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%