Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     55.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  22.3  21.0  22.4  25.8  29.6  28.1  25.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -14.0 -23.0  33.0  16.0  62.0  36.0  51.0  U  U VU  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  51.0  53.0  55.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   5.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        3.4%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       18.4%       12.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%        8.0%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        7.9%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        7.9%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       14.9%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%        7.1%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        2.7%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       17.9%        7.2%       12.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 AL172023 230929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     55.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  22.3  21.0  22.4  25.8  29.6  28.1  25.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  51.0  53.0  55.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   5.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%