Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     55.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.2  27.5  29.5  26.2  29.3  25.7  22.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -1.0  36.0  46.0  46.0  42.0  35.0  71.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   3.0   2.0  -3.0   3.0   5.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.5%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        6.5%       17.0%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%        7.2%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        7.0%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        7.0%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       13.8%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        6.7%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        2.5%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h       17.7%        8.4%       13.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 AL172023 230930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70     55.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  24.2  27.5  29.5  26.2  29.3  25.7  22.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   3.0   2.0  -3.0   3.0   5.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%