Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     55.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  28.0  29.4  26.0  33.1  25.5  21.3  17.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  50.0  58.0  65.0  67.0  37.0  19.0  54.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   4.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.8%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        7.1%       18.7%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        8.7%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        8.0%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        8.0%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       13.0%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%        8.0%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        2.5%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h       21.3%       10.2%       15.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL172023 230930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20     55.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  28.0  29.4  26.0  33.1  25.5  21.3  17.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   4.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%