Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     56.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  29.1  24.9  29.6  27.7  26.1  20.4  20.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  61.0  62.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  61.0  58.0  44.0  38.0  22.0  28.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   5.0   6.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       11.6%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        4.4%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        4.1%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.1%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%        7.2%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        4.4%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.3%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h       20.8%        6.8%       13.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 AL172023 230930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     56.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  29.1  24.9  29.6  27.7  26.1  20.4  20.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  59.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   5.0   6.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%