Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 230930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     56.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  28.1  28.0  31.3  29.1  24.9  24.7  21.5  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  61.0  73.0  66.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  43.0  37.0  40.0  27.0  62.0  62.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   5.0   9.0   2.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.0%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       14.2%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        5.8%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        5.4%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        5.4%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%        9.0%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        6.1%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        1.7%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h       25.5%        8.1%       16.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 AL172023 230930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40     56.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  28.1  28.0  31.3  29.1  24.9  24.7  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   5.0   9.0   2.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%