Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     56.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  35.3  38.8  40.7  36.4  29.4  33.4  26.5  U  U  U VU  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  64.0  73.0  57.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  28.0  37.0  27.0   2.0  53.0  47.0  41.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        5.7%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.9%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        2.9%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        1.9%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        2.6%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 AL172023 231001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20     56.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  35.3  38.8  40.7  36.4  29.4  33.4  26.5  N  F  F VF  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%