Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     57.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  41.4  37.6  36.3  31.5  29.4  28.0  30.9  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  63.0  67.0  77.0  89.0  77.0  71.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  -4.0  15.0  15.0  56.0  27.0  40.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  73.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -1.0  -3.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        5.0%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        3.5%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        2.1%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.2%        3.4%        5.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL172023 231001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     57.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.6  41.4  37.6  36.3  31.5  29.4  28.0  30.9  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  73.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -1.0  -3.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%