Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  35.6  33.9  33.3  30.6  29.6  30.3  25.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  74.0  83.0  94.0  86.0  75.0  83.0  49.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  16.0  23.0  35.0  64.0  40.0  44.0  16.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0   1.0   2.0   9.0   7.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        5.5%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.8%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        4.3%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        2.8%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        0.8%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h       16.5%        4.1%       10.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 AL172023 231001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     58.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  35.6  33.9  33.3  30.6  29.6  30.3  25.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  -4.0   1.0   2.0   9.0   7.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%