Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  33.3  32.5  30.2  30.3  26.7  30.8  19.6  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  86.0  95.0  95.0  75.0  81.0  69.0  31.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  15.0  27.0  45.0   9.0  30.0  41.0  64.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  67.0  71.0  75.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  10.0   0.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.7%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        6.0%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        1.8%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        1.5%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.5%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        4.0%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        2.5%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.7%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h       14.6%        4.0%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 AL172023 231001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  33.3  32.5  30.2  30.3  26.7  30.8  19.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  67.0  71.0  75.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  10.0   0.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%