Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     58.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  31.6  35.5  32.9  31.0  28.0  24.1  25.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  85.0  93.0  91.0  76.0  76.0  46.0  22.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  19.0  52.0  66.0  15.0  44.0  54.0  60.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  10.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        7.1%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        2.2%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        4.8%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        3.0%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        0.8%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h       12.4%        4.5%        8.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 AL172023 231002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50     58.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  31.6  35.5  32.9  31.0  28.0  24.1  25.6  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  10.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%