Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.9  30.5  33.1  32.8  25.7  28.6  23.1  33.5  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  96.0  88.0  78.0  80.0  69.0  30.0  21.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  30.0  57.0  28.0  10.0  36.0  40.0  93.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  70.0  74.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   3.0  -1.0  -3.0   4.0   3.0  11.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        9.8%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        3.5%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.0%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.0%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%        7.1%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        4.3%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        1.3%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%        5.0%        7.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 AL172023 231002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.9  30.5  33.1  32.8  25.7  28.6  23.1  33.5  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  70.0  74.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   3.0  -1.0  -3.0   4.0   3.0  11.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%