Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     60.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  32.1  30.7  29.1  29.7  23.7  27.8  33.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  81.0  76.0  75.0  97.0  64.0  29.0  27.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  35.0  35.0  14.0  53.0  40.0  91.0  98.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.6%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       10.6%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.0%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.5%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.5%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        7.9%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        5.3%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        1.5%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       16.0%        5.4%       10.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 AL172023 231002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     60.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  32.1  30.7  29.1  29.7  23.7  27.8  33.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%