Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  33.8  31.5  25.3  32.3  20.2  26.7  21.8  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  75.0  76.0  85.0  84.0  41.0  24.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -2.0 -19.0  27.0  47.0  76.0  55.0 115.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  65.0  68.0  74.0  78.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0   2.0  -1.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        9.6%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        3.6%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.1%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.1%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        6.6%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        4.4%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%        6.5%        9.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 AL172023 231002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     61.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  33.8  31.5  25.3  32.3  20.2  26.7  21.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  65.0  68.0  74.0  78.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  -2.0   2.0  -1.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%