Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     62.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  32.0  23.6  27.6  24.7  24.9  32.0  41.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  70.0  73.0  81.0  68.0  39.0  31.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -11.0  35.0  68.0  44.0  77.0  72.0 118.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  69.0  71.0  77.0  79.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   6.0   2.0  -3.0   3.0  -2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        9.7%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        3.4%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        3.1%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.1%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        7.4%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        5.5%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        1.6%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h       10.2%        4.5%        7.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 AL172023 231003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     62.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  32.0  23.6  27.6  24.7  24.9  32.0  41.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  69.0  71.0  77.0  79.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   6.0   2.0  -3.0   3.0  -2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%