Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     62.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  29.5  29.0  32.2  24.1  35.5  31.7  45.2  U  N  N  U  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  74.0  76.0  68.0  48.0  27.0  35.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  17.0  69.0  64.0  95.0  72.0  77.0 115.0  U  U  N  N  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  80.0  80.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   3.0  -2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.3%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       10.2%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        3.9%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        3.4%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        3.4%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        8.7%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        4.4%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        2.8%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 AL172023 231003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     62.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  29.5  29.0  32.2  24.1  35.5  31.7  45.2  F  N  N  N  N  F  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  80.0  80.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   3.0  -2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%