Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231003 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     63.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  32.2  31.9  29.5  30.8  31.9  38.2  44.9  U  U  U  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  65.0  61.0  56.0  42.0  33.0  20.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 110.1  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  65.0  38.0  71.0  86.0  82.0 141.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  F  N VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  81.0  82.0  77.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   6.0  21.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.1%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%        8.8%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        3.0%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.7%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        6.0%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        3.3%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        1.5%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 AL172023 231003 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60     63.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  32.2  31.9  29.5  30.8  31.9  38.2  44.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  81.0  82.0  77.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   6.0  21.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%