Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 231003 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 64.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.0 31.9 32.1 31.3 30.4 26.8 41.9 42.2 U U U U N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 62.0 57.0 56.0 48.0 30.0 10.0 7.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 108.6 91.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 41.0 58.0 85.0 109.0 124.0 113.0 120.0 N N N F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 71.0 74.0 77.0 81.0 82.0 77.0 71.0 N N N F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 8.0 22.0 28.0 85.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 3.9% 2.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 1.1% 2.8% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 2.9% 2.3% 2.6% 70kt / 48h 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 5.9% 0.9% 3.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.72 AL172023 231003 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 64.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.0 31.9 32.1 31.3 30.4 26.8 41.9 42.2 N N N N N N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 71.0 74.0 77.0 81.0 82.0 77.0 71.0 N N N U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 8.0 22.0 28.0 85.0 N N N N F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%