Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231004 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90     65.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  32.0  30.4  31.6  31.6  39.8  38.5  54.1  U  U  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  62.0  64.0  74.0  38.0  13.0   7.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  96.6  79.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  51.0  81.0  89.0  94.0 104.0 119.0 104.0  U  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  76.0  71.0  65.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  18.0  33.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.1%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        9.4%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        3.0%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        6.7%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        2.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        0.8%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 AL172023 231004 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90     65.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  32.0  30.4  31.6  31.6  39.8  38.5  54.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  76.0  71.0  65.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  18.0  33.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%