Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     65.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  30.3  29.2  29.5  25.7  42.6  47.9  38.9  N  N  N  N  N VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  58.0  61.0  66.0  30.0   9.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 102.4  91.2  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  97.0  97.0 126.0 104.0  72.0 127.0 100.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  78.0  72.0  70.0  64.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   9.0  23.0  25.0  47.0  54.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       13.5%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        4.8%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.3%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       11.2%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        3.3%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        0.7%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 AL172023 231004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     65.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  30.3  29.2  29.5  25.7  42.6  47.9  38.9  N  N  N  N  N VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  78.0  72.0  70.0  64.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   9.0  23.0  25.0  47.0  54.0  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%