Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     65.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  27.6  30.1  25.7  34.2  38.0  38.8  34.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  53.0  51.0  39.0  14.0  12.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  96.6  79.6  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  86.0 125.0 115.0  95.0  83.0 122.0 110.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  65.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   6.0  11.0  20.0  47.0  78.0 135.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       12.6%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        4.4%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.0%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        4.0%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%        8.1%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        2.0%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        0.4%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 AL172023 231004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     65.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  27.6  30.1  25.7  34.2  38.0  38.8  34.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  65.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   6.0  11.0  20.0  47.0  78.0 135.0  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%