Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 231004 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 65.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.5 28.8 25.5 24.3 37.0 33.4 37.1 57.1 N N N N U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 54.0 46.0 41.0 22.0 11.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 107.4 84.6 81.5 33.4 F F F N N N N VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 106.0 115.0 78.0 59.0 109.0 130.0 180.0 F F F N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 78.0 76.0 72.0 69.0 63.0 62.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 6.0 11.0 16.0 27.0 56.0 94.0 66.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 3.2% 9.4% 6.3% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 3.2% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.8% 1.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.8% 1.4% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 4.8% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 0.2% 0.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.54 AL172023 231004 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 65.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.5 28.8 25.5 24.3 37.0 33.4 37.1 57.1 N N N N F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 79.0 78.0 76.0 72.0 69.0 63.0 62.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 6.0 11.0 16.0 27.0 56.0 94.0 66.0 N N F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%