Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 231005 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 34.7 35.3 42.8 48.1 46.5 32.0 54.5 U U U VU VU VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 41.0 19.0 9.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 129.3 124.6 113.6 94.4 78.6 50.9 9.8 F F N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 115.0 106.0 123.0 83.0 57.0 146.0 120.0 113.0 F F F N N VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 77.0 72.0 68.0 60.0 65.0 65.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 14.0 16.0 12.0 27.0 32.0 55.0 72.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 1.1% 4.3% 2.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.30 AL172023 231005 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.2 34.7 35.3 42.8 48.1 46.5 32.0 54.5 F F F VF VF VF N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 77.0 72.0 68.0 60.0 65.0 65.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 14.0 16.0 12.0 27.0 32.0 55.0 72.0 N F F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%