Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 231005 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.20 65.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.00 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 31.6 38.1 41.1 35.0 32.7 52.9 62.0 U U U VU U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 25.0 10.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 129.3 124.6 113.6 99.8 84.6 77.2 18.2 9.0 F N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 89.0 92.0 66.0 113.0 86.0 149.0 116.0 F F F N F F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 78.0 73.0 70.0 65.0 62.0 66.0 61.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 11.0 15.0 33.0 72.0 107.0 84.0 120.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.6% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.98 AL172023 231005 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.20 65.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 31.6 38.1 41.1 35.0 32.7 52.9 62.0 F N F VF F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 78.0 73.0 70.0 65.0 62.0 66.0 61.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 11.0 15.0 33.0 72.0 107.0 84.0 120.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3%