Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 231005 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.90 66.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 42.4 43.8 40.0 43.9 34.7 46.8 66.6 U VU VU U VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 11.0 11.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.6 103.6 97.4 84.4 68.6 54.3 1.5 -2.6 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 123.0 91.0 100.0 33.0 94.0 155.0 107.0 61.0 F F F N F VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 73.0 71.0 68.0 62.0 66.0 61.0 62.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 12.0 17.0 37.0 20.0 20.0 26.0 66.0 VU U U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 1.0% 1.7% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 2.7% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.72 AL172023 231005 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.90 66.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 42.4 43.8 40.0 43.9 34.7 46.8 66.6 N VF VF F VF F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 73.0 71.0 68.0 62.0 66.0 61.0 62.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 12.0 17.0 37.0 20.0 20.0 26.0 66.0 VF F F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 6.3% 0.2% 3.2%