Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 231005 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.30 66.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.7 42.0 39.8 34.4 28.3 44.3 53.7 63.6 U VU U U N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 10.0 8.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.1 97.4 89.8 79.3 68.6 35.0 -0.5 -4.0 N N N N U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 100.0 77.0 28.0 111.0 111.0 152.0 111.0 46.0 F N U F F VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 73.0 69.0 67.0 64.0 63.0 60.0 64.0 F N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 27.0 52.0 72.0 106.0 92.0 52.0 81.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 0.7% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 2.1% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.40 AL172023 231005 18UTC Storm Located at : 26.30 66.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.