Rapid Intensification Guidance AL172023 231006 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.40 66.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 19.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.40 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.5 42.1 36.9 36.7 28.3 49.6 64.4 59.3 U VU U U N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 10.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.5 89.8 77.7 73.0 71.5 7.9 -2.1 -3.5 N N N U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 -2.0 70.0 98.0 127.0 135.0 93.0 89.0 N U N F F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 73.0 69.0 62.0 63.0 63.0 62.0 75.0 F N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 37.0 44.0 73.0 66.0 101.0 77.0 75.0 10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 AL172023 231006 00UTC Storm Located at : 27.40 66.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.