Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL172023 231006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  38.6  39.1  32.9  46.2  65.6  74.8  44.1 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.8  84.4  73.0  68.6  53.2   1.4  -2.4  -3.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  85.0  94.0  80.0 193.0 164.0  68.0  41.0  U  F  F  N VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  72.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  64.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  44.0  84.0  69.0  66.0  76.0  49.0  41.0  12.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.60

 AL172023 231006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.