Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182023 231002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     55.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 121.5 121.5 121.5 121.5 121.5 121.5 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 AL182023 231002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50     55.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%