Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60     31.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  28.7  30.8  35.8  38.9  38.6  32.0  21.8  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  26.0  24.0  27.0  32.0  29.0  27.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 129.6 129.6 129.6 125.1 122.9 118.6 118.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  71.0  61.0  62.0  49.0   7.0 -25.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       13.4%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        5.0%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.5%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.4%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       12.6%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        4.9%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 AL192023 231011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60     31.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  28.7  30.8  35.8  38.9  38.6  32.0  21.8  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%