Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231011 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10     32.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.8  37.4  38.6  40.9  33.0  18.5  23.3  U  U  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  28.0  32.0  30.0  28.0  32.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        124.6 124.6 120.1 120.1 117.9 117.9 115.7 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  52.0  57.0  39.0  35.0   2.0 -41.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.1%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        5.9%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.6%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 AL192023 231011 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10     32.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  31.8  37.4  38.6  40.9  33.0  18.5  23.3  N  N  F  F VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  63.0  59.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%