Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231011 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50     34.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  37.6  37.2  40.4  34.1  27.7  20.2  21.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  28.0  30.0  30.0  29.0  26.0  37.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        124.6 120.1 120.1 120.1 117.9 115.7 111.5 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  31.0  51.0  21.0  14.0 -47.0   0.0 -31.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        5.0%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.3%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 AL192023 231011 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50     34.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  37.6  37.2  40.4  34.1  27.7  20.2  21.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%