Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231011 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     34.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  38.8  37.8  37.4  31.2  20.8  21.7  20.5 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  25.0  24.0  25.0  25.0  35.0  47.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.1 120.1 117.9 117.9 115.7 111.5 109.4 111.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  35.0  57.0  27.0  -8.0 -28.0 -37.0 -28.0  U  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 AL192023 231011 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     34.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.8  38.8  37.8  37.4  31.2  20.8  21.7  20.5 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%