Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     36.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.2  37.9  34.3  30.1  20.1  24.5  24.6  23.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  24.0  25.0  37.0  47.0  42.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 118.6 120.7 116.5 114.4 114.4 114.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  40.0  36.0  27.0  27.0 -73.0 -32.0 -24.0  U  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 AL192023 231012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     36.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.2  37.9  34.3  30.1  20.1  24.5  24.6  23.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%