Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231012 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     37.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  33.6  28.3  24.7  29.3  27.2  22.2  17.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  29.0  35.0  43.0  49.0  57.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        113.6 111.5 111.5 109.4 107.4 107.4 107.4 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  16.0 -34.0  21.0 -18.0  -5.0   2.0 -17.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  51.0  53.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   2.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 AL192023 231012 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     37.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.7  33.6  28.3  24.7  29.3  27.2  22.2  17.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  51.0  53.0  51.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   2.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%