Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231013 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     39.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  26.9  23.1  23.9  31.8  29.0  21.5  18.6  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  32.0  41.0  45.0  43.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        111.5 111.5 109.4 109.4 107.4 107.4 109.4 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0 -26.0   7.0 -34.0 -37.0  -9.0  -9.0 -34.0  U VU  U VU VU  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.6%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 AL192023 231013 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     39.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  26.9  23.1  23.9  31.8  29.0  21.5  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%