Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10     40.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  24.5  24.9  28.5  28.0  22.9  17.4  15.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  42.0  45.0  41.0  49.0  55.0  49.0  51.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        106.5 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 106.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  24.0 -27.0 -46.0 -16.0  -6.0 -16.0 -24.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.7%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        2.7%        2.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 AL192023 231013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10     40.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  24.5  24.9  28.5  28.0  22.9  17.4  15.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%