Rapid Intensification Guidance AL192023 231013 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 42.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.30 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 26.4 27.5 26.2 18.3 15.5 16.6 16.6 N N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 46.0 37.0 34.0 36.0 43.0 44.0 46.0 46.0 N U U U N N N N Potential [kt] 109.4 111.5 111.5 109.4 109.4 111.5 113.6 113.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 -56.0 -28.0 -8.0 -8.0 -23.0 -32.0 -32.0 VU VU VU U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 53.0 49.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.0% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 6.1% 2.5% 4.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.58 AL192023 231013 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 42.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 53.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 26.4 27.5 26.2 18.3 15.5 16.6 16.6 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 53.0 49.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%