Rapid Intensification Guidance AL192023 231014 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 42.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.30 F TC SIZE [%] 43.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.0 23.7 20.5 17.8 14.2 13.9 14.1 14.1 N N N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 35.0 34.0 36.0 41.0 46.0 47.0 47.0 N U U U N N N N Potential [kt] 111.5 109.4 111.5 109.4 111.5 111.5 115.7 115.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -51.0 -53.0 -17.0 -2.0 -11.0 -32.0 -23.0 -23.0 VU VU U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 53.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 47.0 45.0 45.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.2% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 6.3% 3.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.5% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 4.3% 1.9% 3.1% 70kt / 48h 4.3% 1.6% 2.9% 65kt / 72h 11.1% 6.3% 8.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.58 AL192023 231014 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 42.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 43.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.0 23.7 20.5 17.8 14.2 13.9 14.1 14.1 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 53.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 47.0 45.0 45.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%