Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     43.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  21.7  18.5  16.7  14.7  14.8  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  34.0  34.0  35.0  41.0  53.0  46.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        111.5 111.5 111.5 109.4 111.5 113.6 115.7 115.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -59.0 -10.0   0.0  -1.0 -37.0 -56.0  -8.0  -8.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  45.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        6.8%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        2.0%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        1.7%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.3%        6.3%        8.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 AL192023 231014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     43.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  21.7  18.5  16.7  14.7  14.8  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  45.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%