Rapid Intensification Guidance AL192023 231014 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 43.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 30.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 19.0 17.5 16.3 17.4 15.6 19.1 19.1 N N F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 50.0 48.0 40.0 40.0 U U U U N N N N Potential [kt] 116.5 116.5 114.4 116.5 118.6 120.7 125.1 125.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -4.0 21.0 -19.0 -67.0 -23.0 -14.0 -14.0 U U U U VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 2.1% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 4.1% 2.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 3.2% 1.4% 2.3% 70kt / 48h 3.2% 1.0% 2.1% 65kt / 72h 12.0% 4.8% 8.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.58 AL192023 231014 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.80 43.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 30.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 19.0 17.5 16.3 17.4 15.6 19.1 19.1 N N N U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%