Rapid Intensification Guidance AL192023 231014 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 44.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 45.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 16.6 14.7 15.4 14.7 17.0 17.0 17.0 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 35.0 36.0 41.0 53.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 U U U N N N N N Potential [kt] 116.5 114.4 116.5 118.6 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -16.0 0.0 -4.0 -23.0 -43.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 U U U VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 47.0 46.0 48.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 U U VU VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 5.0% 2.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 2.0% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 10.5% 5.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.4% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 5.6% 4.0% 4.8% 70kt / 48h 5.6% 3.3% 4.4% 65kt / 72h 21.5% 11.3% 16.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.60 AL192023 231014 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.30 44.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 45.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 16.6 14.7 15.4 14.7 17.0 17.0 17.0 N N U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 48.0 47.0 46.0 48.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 F F VF VF F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%