Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     45.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.8  15.9  13.3  20.4  20.4  20.4  20.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  43.0  53.0  52.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        116.5 118.6 120.7 122.9 125.1 125.1 125.1 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -12.0 -24.0 -51.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       10.1%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%        3.2%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%        2.6%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h       13.7%        8.1%       10.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 AL192023 231015 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00     45.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     30.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  17.8  15.9  13.3  20.4  20.4  20.4  20.4  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%