Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     47.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  14.2  17.4  23.4  20.7  20.7  20.7  20.7  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  48.0  41.0  41.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        123.6 125.7 127.9 132.3 134.6 134.6 134.6 134.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -32.0 -31.0 -21.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        7.2%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        3.2%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%        2.1%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       29.9%       10.1%       20.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 AL192023 231015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     47.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  14.2  17.4  23.4  20.7  20.7  20.7  20.7  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%