Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192023 231016 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  18.0  24.9  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  41.0  41.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.7 127.9 132.3 132.3 132.3 132.3 132.3 132.3  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -41.0 -29.0 -10.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.2%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.7%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        2.4%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        1.9%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       13.4%        6.7%       10.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 AL192023 231016 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  18.0  24.9  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%