Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     51.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  20.5  25.1  19.8  32.7  32.3  26.3  23.1  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  83.0  84.0  74.0  64.0  68.0  80.0  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  48.0  35.0  34.0  59.0  56.0  16.0  20.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0  -2.0   2.0   8.0  18.0   9.0   7.0  F  F  N  N  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        5.6%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       19.6%       38.5%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.6%       20.4%       15.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%       18.9%       11.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%       18.9%       11.8%
 45kt / 36h       15.9%       39.8%       27.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       17.5%        8.8%
 55kt / 48h       20.9%       17.7%       19.3%
 70kt / 48h       17.7%       10.4%       14.1%
 65kt / 72h       50.3%       25.8%       38.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 AL202023 231018 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     51.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  20.5  25.1  19.8  32.7  32.3  26.3  23.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  57.0  59.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0  -2.0   2.0   8.0  18.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  N  N  F VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%