Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  19.1  15.9  20.0  26.7  27.3  23.0  25.1  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  86.0  76.0  73.0  60.0  68.0  79.0  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  44.0  30.0  45.0  35.0  71.0  14.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -4.0  -4.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.4%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       13.5%       31.6%       22.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       16.0%       11.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       14.3%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.2%       14.3%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h       12.1%       29.1%       20.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.0%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h       23.0%       17.4%       20.2%
 70kt / 48h       16.3%        9.4%       12.8%
 65kt / 72h       53.7%       28.0%       40.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL202023 231019 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     52.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  19.1  15.9  20.0  26.7  27.3  23.0  25.1  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -4.0  -4.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%