Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     54.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  20.0  24.2  29.1  27.9  28.5  25.5  28.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  75.0  73.0  70.0  63.0  76.0  77.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  42.0  56.0  34.0  51.0  -3.0  37.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -4.0   1.0  11.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  F  N  F  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.8%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       27.8%       19.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%       13.5%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       11.7%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       11.7%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       26.5%       17.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.3%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h       16.2%       14.1%       15.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%        7.0%        8.0%
 65kt / 72h       45.0%       22.8%       33.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 AL202023 231019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     54.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  20.0  24.2  29.1  27.9  28.5  25.5  28.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -4.0   1.0  11.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  U  N  U  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%