Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     56.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  24.2  27.7  25.9  27.1  22.9  23.9  23.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  66.0  59.0  60.0  76.0  79.0  83.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  47.0  49.0  61.0  24.0  22.0  20.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   6.0   0.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%        9.4%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       24.5%       39.3%       31.9%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       23.8%       19.5%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       23.8%       15.9%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       23.8%       15.9%
 45kt / 36h       17.7%       28.7%       23.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.4%        5.7%
 55kt / 48h       18.9%       18.4%       18.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.1%        7.1%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h       41.3%       19.6%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 AL202023 231019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     56.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  24.2  27.7  25.9  27.1  22.9  23.9  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   6.0   0.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%