Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202023 231020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     56.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  27.6  25.4  23.5  21.4  24.5  23.9  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  65.0  59.0  61.0  77.0  78.0  81.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  50.0  48.0  60.0  23.0  58.0  26.0 109.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        4.8%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       18.0%       30.8%       24.4%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       17.4%       13.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       17.0%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       16.7%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%       22.3%       17.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h       19.1%       17.3%       18.2%
 70kt / 48h        8.5%        5.6%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       43.6%       17.3%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 AL202023 231020 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     56.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  27.6  25.4  23.5  21.4  24.5  23.9  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%